اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

مقایسه بین سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی و تحریم‌های روسیه بر صادرات و واردات گروه بریکس

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
محمد حسن فطرس 1
مریم مظهری اوا 2
1 استاد گروه اقتصاد، رشته اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی‌سینا، همدان، ایران
2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، رشته اقتصاد، دانشگاه سراوان، سیستان و بلوچستان، ایران
10.61838/efp.21
چکیده
هدف این تحقیق بررسی و مقایسه بین سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و تحریم­های روسیه بر صادرات و واردات گروه بریکس است. برای این منظور با استفاده از داده­های فصلی سال­های 2010-2023 به برآورد تاثیر متغیر­های مورد نظر بر مجموع صادرات و واردات گروه کشورهای بریکس از طریق رویگرد گشتاور تعمیم یافته پرداخته شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد متغیر شرایط تجاری در دوره قبل که مجموع صادرات و واردات را شامل می­شود تاثیر مثبت و معنادار بر متغیر وابسته در دوره فعلی دارد. همچنین بر اساس براورد مدل متغیر نرخ ارز موثر تاثیر مثبت و معنادار بر شرایط تجاری دارد. متغیر سرمایه گذاری تاثیر منفی و معنادار بر متغیر وابسته دارد. متغیر خالص صادرات که تفاوت بین صادرات و واردات کشور­های گروه بریکس است بر متغیر شرایط تجاری تاثیر مثبت و معنادار دارد. متغیر تحریم که در این تحقیق تحریم­های همه جانبه اعمال شده علیه روسیه است­، در دوره 2014-2020 تاثیر تحریم­ها منفی و معنادار است و در دوره 2021-2023 این تاثیر منفی و بی‌معنی است. با توجه به نتایج تحقیق می­توان بیان کرد که متغیر تحریم نسبت به متغیر سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی تاثیر گذاری منفی بیشتری بر شرایط تجاری کشور­های عضو بریکس دارد اما در دوره­ای که روسیه توانست بر تحریم­ها غلبه کند تاثیر منفی تحریم بی‌معنی شد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی
تحریم
وضعیت تجارت
گشتاور تعمیم یافته
گروه بریکس

عنوان مقاله English

Comparison between Foreign Direct Investment and Russian Sanctions on BRICS Exports and Imports

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Hassan Fotros 1
Maryam MazharyAva 2
1 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Saravan University, Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran
چکیده English

The objective of this research is to examine and compare the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) and Russian sanctions on the exports and imports of the BRICS group. For this purpose, using quarterly data from 2010 to 2023, the impact of the selected variables on the total exports and imports of the BRICS countries was estimated through the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. The results of the study indicated that the trade condition variable in the previous period, which includes the total exports and imports, has a positive and significant effect on the dependent variable in the current period. Furthermore, based on the model estimation, the effective exchange rate variable exerts a positive and significant impact on trade conditions. The investment variable has a negative and significant effect on the dependent variable. The net export variable, defined as the difference between exports and imports of BRICS countries, has a positive and significant impact on the trade condition variable. The sanction variable, which in this study refers to the comprehensive sanctions imposed against Russia, shows that during the period 2014–2020 the sanctions had a negative and significant effect, whereas in the period 2021–2023 this negative effect became insignificant. Considering the results of the study, it can be concluded that the sanction variable had a more negative impact on the trade conditions of BRICS member countries compared to foreign direct investment. However, during the period in which Russia managed to overcome the sanctions, the negative effect of sanctions became insignificant.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Foreign direct investment
sanctions
trade condition
generalized method of moments
BRICS
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