اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

طلاق و تأثیر آن بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای منا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران.
2 گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
چکیده
طلاق به‌عنوان یک پدیده اجتماعی در حال گسترش، نه تنها پیامدهای عمیقی بر ساختار و انسجام نهاد خانواده دارد، بلکه می‌تواند آثار قابل‌توجهی بر متغیرهای اقتصادی، ازجمله رشد اقتصادی (شریف پور و همکاران، 1403)، بر جای گذارد. این پدیده در دهه‌های اخیر به‌ویژه در کشورهای در حال توسعه ازجمله ایران و سایر کشورهای منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا (منا)، به طور فزاینده‌ای رو به افزایش گذاشته است. هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر، بررسی تأثیر نرخ طلاق بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران طی دوره زمانی ۲۰۰۰ تا ۲۰۲۳ و مقایسه آن با چند کشور منتخب منطقه منا است تا تصویری روشن از پیوندهای اجتماعی و اقتصادی این متغیر ارائه شود. پژوهش حاضر از نوع توصیفی- همبستگی و با بهره‌گیری از رویکرد پس‌رویدادی انجام شده است. داده‌های موردنیاز از منابع آماری داخلی نظیر مرکز آمار ایران و بانک مرکزی، و همچنین منابع بین‌المللی ازجمله بانک جهانی و صندوق بین‌المللی پول گردآوری گردیده شده است. برای تحلیل داده‌ها از مدل اقتصادسنجی مبتنی بر الگوی یارانوفسکی و زداوتینگر (۲۰۱۷) استفاده شده و روش برآورد رگرسیون داده‌های ترکیبی به کار گرفته شده است. نتایج مدل نشان می‌دهد که افزایش نرخ طلاق با کاهش معنادار رشد اقتصادی همراه بوده است. در مقابل، افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری فیزیکی و بالا رفتن نرخ مشارکت نیروی کار، تأثیری مثبت و معنادار بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای مورد بررسی داشته‌اند (امانی و همکاران، 1402). این یافته‌ها اهمیت توجه به پیامدهای کلان طلاق را دوچندان کرده و ضرورت تدوین سیاست‌های اجتماعی و اقتصادی برای کاهش تبعات این پدیده را در راستای پایداری رشد اقتصادی مورد تأکید قرار می‌دهند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Divorce and Its Impact on Economic Growth in MENA Countries

نویسندگان English

Mehdi choghaei 1
ahmad sarlak 1
Hadi Ghaffari 2
Gholamali Haji 1
1 Department of Economics, Ar.C., Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran.
2 Department of Economics, Arak Branch, Payam Noor University, Arak, Iran
چکیده English

Divorce, as an expanding social phenomenon, not only has profound consequences for the structure and cohesion of the family institution but also can significantly impact macroeconomic variables, including economic growth. In recent decades, this phenomenon has been steadily rising, especially in developing countries such as those in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This study empirically investigates the impact of the divorce rate on economic growth across selected MENA countries for the period 2000 to 2023. Employing a panel data regression analysis, this study examines the linkages between these variables based on an econometric model inspired by the framework of Paweł Jarankowski and Jan Żak Zdaoutinger (2017). The model's findings indicate that a higher divorce rate has a significant negative effect on economic growth. In contrast, increases in physical investment and the labor force participation rate exert a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of the studied countries. These results highlight the growing importance of addressing the broader macroeconomic consequences of divorce and underscore the need for developing effective social and economic policies to mitigate its adverse impacts and support sustainable economic growth.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Economic Growth
Divorce
Physical Capital
Human Capital
MENA Countries
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