اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

تأثیر ابزارهای تخصیص ارز بر پایداری ذخایر رسمی: مطالعه موردی مزایده ارز خارجی در عراق و دلالت‌های آن برای ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
علیرضا حسن زاده جزدانی
حسین اکبری فرد
احمد محمود خلف
گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران
10.22034/efp.2025.732968
چکیده
 
مدیریت ذخایر ارزی در اقتصادهای وابسته به نفت، چالشی مشترک و کلیدی برای ثبات اقتصاد کلان در کشورهایی مانند عراق و ایران است. سیاست «مزایده ارز خارجی» به عنوان یکی از ابزارهای مداخله‌ای، نقشی دوگانه ایفا می‌کند: از یک سو ابزاری برای تثبیت نرخ ارز و از سوی دیگر، عاملی بالقوه برای فرسایش ذخایر رسمی است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل کمّی تأثیر این سیاست بر سطح ذخایر رسمی خارجی عراق طی دوره مارس 2018 تا دسامبر 2023 و با استفاده از مدل خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی (ARDL) انجام شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که حجم مزایده ارزی تأثیری منفی، معنادار و فزاینده بر ذخایر رسمی دارد؛ به‌طوری‌که کشش این اثر از 0.18- در کوتاه‌مدت به 0.65- در بلندمدت افزایش می‌یابد. همچنین، ضریب تصحیح خطا (0.42-) حاکی از سرعت مناسب تعدیل عدم‌تعادل‌ها به سمت مسیر بلندمدت است. در مقابل، درآمدهای نفتی به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین عامل جبرانی، تأثیر مثبت و معناداری (با کشش 0.32+ در کوتاه‌مدت و 0.89+ در بلندمدت) بر ذخایر دارند. این یافته‌ها، ضمن تبیین پویایی‌های اقتصاد عراق، دلالت‌های سیاستی مهمی برای نظام ارزی ایران ارائه می‌دهد و بر اهمیت مدیریت بهینه ابزارهای تخصیص ارز (مانند مرکز مبادله ارز و طلای ایران) در جهت حفظ پایداری ذخایر راهبردی کشور تأکید می‌کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
اقتصاد نفتی
ذخایر ارزی عراق
متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی
سیاست ارزی
مزایده ارز خارجی
ایران

عنوان مقاله English

The Impact of Currency Allocation Mechanisms on the Sustainability of Official Reserves: A Case Study of Iraq's Foreign Currency Auction and Its Implications for Iran

نویسندگان English

Alireza Hassanzadeh Jezdani
Hossein Akbarifard
Ahmed Mahmood Khalaf
Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
چکیده English

The management of foreign exchange reserves in oil-dependent economies constitutes a shared and critical challenge for macroeconomic stability in nations such as Iraq and Iran. The "foreign currency auction" policy, functioning as an interventionist instrument, plays a dual role: on one hand, it serves as a mechanism for exchange rate stabilization, while on the other, it poses a potential threat of official reserve erosion. This study aims to quantitatively analyze the impact of this policy on the level of Iraq's official foreign reserves over the period from March 2018 to December 2023, utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The findings indicate that the volume of currency auctions exerts a negative, significant, and escalating impact on official reserves, with the elasticity of this effect intensifying from -0.18 in the short run to -0.65 in the long run. Furthermore, the estimated Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficient (-0.42) indicates an appropriate speed of adjustment of disequilibria towards the long-run equilibrium path. Conversely, oil revenues, identified as the most significant compensatory factor, exhibit a positive and significant impact on reserves, with elasticities of +0.32 in the short run and +0.89 in the long run. While elucidating the dynamics of the Iraqi economy, these findings offer critical policy implications for Iran's foreign exchange system, emphasizing the imperative of optimally managing currency allocation mechanisms (such as the Iran Center for Exchange of Currency and Gold) to ensure the sustainability of the nation's strategic reserves.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Oil Economy
Iraq's Foreign Exchange Reserves
Macroeconomic Variables
Foreign Exchange Policy
Foreign Exchange Auction
Iran
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