اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

نقش توسعه مالی در پیوند میان تغییرات اقلیمی و فقر: شواهد تجربی از ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
2 دانشکده امور عمومی لا فولت، دانشگاه ویسکانسین-مدیسون، ایالات متحده آمریکا
چکیده
ادبیات مربوط به توسعه مالی و کاهش فقر طی دهه‌ی گذشته توجه فزاینده‌ای را به خود جلب کرده است. توسعه مالی از طریق تأثیر مثبت بر رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی (GDP)، به کاهش فقر کمک می‌کند؛ با این حال، تأثیر غیرمستقیم آن بر فقر از مسیر انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن (CO₂) کمتر مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. این پژوهش به بررسی رابطه‌ی میان توسعه مالی، انتشار CO₂ و فقر در ایران می‌پردازد. در این راستا، از تکنیک هم‌انباشتگی ARDL برای برآورد یک مدل بر مبنای داده‌های فصلی ایران طی دوره‌ی فصل چهارم ۱۹۸۶ تا فصل چهارم ۲۰۲۳ استفاده شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که افزایش شاخص چندبعدی توسعه مالی در بلندمدت به کاهش نسبت جمعیت زیر خط فقر منجر می‌شود و در عین حال، اثر منفی انتشار CO₂ بر افزایش فقر را تعدیل می‌کند. در مجموع، نتایج حاکی از آن است که وجود یک نظام مالی کارآمد و توسعه‌یافته نقش کلیدی در کاهش آثار منفی انتشار آلاینده‌ها بر سطح زندگی دارد؛ موضوعی که می‌تواند برای سیاست‌گذاران، به‌ویژه در اقتصادهای در حال توسعه‌ی غنی از منابع طبیعی، حائز اهمیت فراوان باشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

The Role of Financial Development in the Nexus Between Climate Change and Poverty: Empirical Evidence from Iran

نویسندگان English

Farzaneh Ahmadian Yazdi 1
Vahideh Teimourzadeh 1
Mahsa Mesgarani 1
Mohammad Eshaghi 2
1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States of America
چکیده English

In recent years, the literature on financial development and poverty reduction has gained increasing attention. Financial development contributes to poverty alleviation primarily by fostering GDP growth; however, its indirect role in influencing poverty through carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions has received relatively limited focus. This study investigates the relationship between financial development, CO₂ emissions, and poverty in Iran. To this end, an ARDL cointegration approach is employed to estimate a model using quarterly data from Q4 1986 to Q4 2023. The findings reveal that a higher multidimensional financial development index reduces the share of the population living below the poverty line in the long run, while also mitigating the adverse effect of CO₂ emissions on poverty. Overall, the results suggest that an efficient and well-developed financial system plays a crucial role in alleviating the negative welfare impacts of environmental degradation—an insight of particular relevance for policymakers in resource-rich developing economies.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Financial Development
CO2 emissions
Poverty
Iran
Aghion, P., Howitt, P., & Mayer-Foulkes, D. (2005). The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(1), 173-222. doi:10.1162/0033553053327515
Álvarez, R., García-Marín, Á, & Ilabaca, S. (2018). Commodity price shocks and poverty reduction in Chile. Resources Policy. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.04.004
Angelsen A, Jagger P, Babigumira R, Belcher B, Hogarth NJ, Bauch S, et al. (2014). Environmental income and rural livelihoods: a global-comparative analysis. World Development, 64, S12-S28. doi:10.17528/cifor/data.00002
Angelsen, A., & Wunder, S. (2006). Poverty and inequality: Economic growth is better than its reputation. Chapter in Dan Banik (ed.): Poverty, Politics and Development: Interdisciplinary Perspectives (pp. 79-103). Bogor, Indonesia: The Center for International Forestry Research.
Barro, R. J., & Lee, J. W. (2013). A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950-2010. Journal of Development Economics, 104, 184-198. doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.10.001
Bayar, Y. (2017). Financial development and poverty reduction in emerging market economies. Panoeconomicus, 64(5), 593-606. doi:10.2298/pan150403014b
Beck T, Demirgüç-Kunt A, Levine R. Finance, inequality and the poor. Journal of economic growth. 2007 Mar; 12(1): 27-49.
Bekun, F. V., Uzuner, G., Onifade, S. T., & Alola, A. A. (2024). Exploring the poverty-environment nexus in the MINT economies: New evidence from cointegration tests with structural breaks. OPEC Energy Review, 48(3), 340-358. doi:10.1111/opec.12317
Bilgili, M. (2025). Trends and Variability in Global Ocean Heat Content Time Series Data for the period 2005-2035. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 24, 106586.
Bueno, N., & Morefield, R. (2017). Empowerment Of Women And Poverty Reduction In Developing Countries. Inquiry, 2(2). doi:10.21533/isjss.v2i2.80
Dao, M. Q. (2008). Human capital, poverty, and income distribution in developing countries. Journal of Economic Studies, 35(4), 294-303. doi:10.1108/01443580810895590
Easterly, W., & Fischer, S. (2001). Inflation and the Poor. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33(2), 160-178. doi:10.2307/2673879
Fujii, T. (2016). Climate Change and Vulnerability to Poverty: An Empirical Investigation in Rural Indonesia, ADBI Working Paper 622. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. Available: https://www.adb.org/publications/climate-change-vulnerability-poverty-indonesia.
Gourdon, J., Maystre, N., & Melo, J. D. (2008). Openness, inequality and poverty: Endowments matter. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 17(3), 343-378. doi:10.1080/09638190802136978
Greenwood, J., & Jovanovic, B. (1990). Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income. doi:10.21034/wp.446
Hallegatte, S., & Rozenberg, J. (2017). Climate change through a poverty lens. Nature Climate Change, 7(4), 250-256. doi:10.1038/nclimate3253
Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues Paper. (n.d.). Retrieved August 16, 2020, from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11242.pdf
Issahaku, H., Dary, S. K. & Ustarz, Y. (2013). Financial Characteristics and Innovations in Microfinance Institutions in Ghana, American Journal of Rural Development, 1(3), 40-48. DOI: 10.12691/ajrd-1-3-2
Jacoby, H. G., Rabassa, M., & Skoufias, E. (2014). Distributional Implications of Climate Change in Rural India: A General Equilibrium Approach. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 97(4), 1135-1156. doi:10.1093/ajae/aau084
Jassogne, L., Laderach, P., & Van Asten, P. (2013). The Impact of Climate Change on Coffee in Uganda: Lessons ... Retrieved August 16, 2020, from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263725702_The_Impact_of_Climate_Change_on_Coffee_in_Uganda_Lessons_from_a_case_study_in_the_Rwenzori_Mountains
Jeanneney, S. G., & Kpodar, K. (2011). Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: Can There be a Benefit without a Cost? Journal of Development Studies, 47(1), 143-163. doi:10.1080/00220388. 2010.506918
Jolliffe, I. T. (2002). Principal component analysis. New York: Springer.
Kaidi, N., & Mensi, S. (2019). Financial Development, Income Inequality, and Poverty Reduction: Democratic Versus Autocratic Countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy. doi:10.1007/s13132-019-00606-3
Kakwani, N. (1993). Poverty and Economic Growth with Application to Cote D'ivoire. Review of Income and Wealth, 39(2), 121-139. doi:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1993.tb00443.x
King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717-737. doi:10.2307/ 2118406
Knoop, T. A. (2008). Modern financial macroeconomics: Panics, crashes, and crises. Malden, MA: Blackwell.
McKinnon, R. I. (1973). Money and capital in economic development. Washington D.C.: The Brookings Institution.
Moav, O., & Neeman, Z. (2012). Saving Rates and Poverty: The Role of Conspicuous Consumption and Human Capital. The Economic Journal, 122(563), 933-956. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2012.02516.x
Naseri, M., & Ahadi, M. S. (2016), Assessment of the Islamic Republic of Iran's Policy on Climate Change, The Sociocultural Strategy Journal, 6, 21-48.
National Development Fund of Iran. Annual Report 2013. Tehran: National Development Fund of Iran; 2013.
Nazari, M. (2017), Assessment of Economic Impacts of Reducing Emission commitments and Economic Diversification, Third National Climate Change Report, National Climate Change Office.
Odhiambo, N. M. (2009). Finance-growth-poverty nexus in South Africa: A dynamic causality linkage. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 38(2), 320-325. doi:10.1016/j.socec.2008.12.006
Olopade, B. C., Okodua, H., Oladosun, M., & Asaleye, A. J. (2019). Human capital and poverty reduction in OPEC member-countries. Heliyon, 5(8). doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e02279
Paris Agreement Report (2015), United Nations, available: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_ agreement.pdf
Park, J., Bangalore, M., Hallegatte, S., & Sandhoefner, E. (2018). Households and heat stress: Estimating the distributional consequences of climate change. Environment and Development Economics, 23(3), 349-368. doi:10.1017/s1355770x1800013x
Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 136-401. doi:10.2307/1913712
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. doi:10.1002/jae.616
Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. In S. Storm (Ed.). Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century (pp. 371-413), Cambridge University Press
Quy, N. H. (2016). Relationship between Economic Growth, Unemployment and Poverty: Analysis at Provincial Level in Vietnam. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(12), 113-119. doi:10.5539/ijef.v8n12p113
Rajan, R. G., & Zingales, L. (2003). Banks and Markets: The Changing Character of European Finance. SSRN Electronic Journal. doi:10.2139/ssrn.389100
Ren, X., Li, J., He, F., & Lucey, B. (2023). Impact of climate policy uncertainty on traditional energy and green markets: Evidence from time-varying granger tests. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 1, 173: 113058.
Ren, X., Shao, Q., & Zhong, R. (2023). Nexus between poverty and environment in developing countries: The role of financial development and energy consumption. Energy Economics, 118, 106493. doi:10.1016/j.eist.2023.3001045
Sadatrasoul, S. M., Gholamian, M. R., & Shahanaghi, K. (2015). Investigating the effect of selected sustainable development indicators on credit allocation: The case of National Development Fund of Iran. Interdisciplinary Journal of Management Studies (Formerly known as Iranian Journal of Management Studies). 8(3), 453-477.
Santos, M. E. (2011). Human Capital and the Quality of Education in a Poverty Trap Model. Oxford Development Studies, 39(1), 25-47. doi:10.1080/13600818.2010.551003
Sierra, K., Kyte, R., & Bond, J. (2008). Development and climate change: A strategic framework for the World Bank Group (Tech. No. 76402). Washington D.C.: World Bank.
Simler, K. R., & Arndt, C. (2007). Poverty Comparisons With Absolute Poverty Lines Estimated From Survey Data. Review of Income and Wealth, 53(2), 275-294. doi:10.1111/j.1475-4991.2007.00228.x
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., et al. (2007). Climate Change: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Son, H. H., & Kakwani, N. (2004). Economic growth and poverty reduction: Initial conditions matter. Unpublished manuscript, Brasilia.
The Global Economy. Iran: Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita. The World Bank data. Available at: https://www.theglobaleconomy. com/Iran/Carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita/ (Accessed
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2018). EPA’s Report on the Climate Call. Washington, DC: EPA; 2018.
United Nations DESA. The sustainable development goals report 2018. Stylus Publishing, LLC; 2018 Jul 20.
World Bank. World Development Indicators: Inflation, consumer prices (annual %). Washington (DC): World Bank; 2024. Available from: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG
Wijerathna, W. A., & Dharmarathna, D. G. (2023). Effect of the financial development on carbon emission: an empirical investigation from a global perspective. Journal of Accountancy and Finance, 10(I), 1-8.
Wilson, R. A., & Briscoe, G. (2004). The Impact of Human Capital on Economic Growth:A Review, in Descy, P. and M. Tessaring (Eds): Impact of Education and Training, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2012). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. 5th ed. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning, 198.
World Bank data (2017b). From: https://data.worldbank. org/indicator/SI.POV.LMIC?locations=IR.
World Bank. Iran Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper. Washington, DC: World Bank; 2004. p. 15.
World Bank. World Bank data, (2018a). Available from: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM. CO2E.PC?locations=SA-IR
World Bank. (2024). World Development Indicators: Trade (% of GDP). Washington (DC): World Bank; 2024. Available from: https://data.worldbank.org/ indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Wunder, S., Noack, F., Angelsen, A. (2018). Climate, crops, and forests: A pan-tropical analysis of household income generation. Environment and Development Economics, 23(3), 279-297. doi:10.1017/s1355770x18000116
Zhang, R., & Naceur, S. B. (2019). Financial development, inequality, and poverty: Some international evidence. International Review of Economics & Finance, 61, 1-16. doi:10.1016/j.iref. 2018.12.015