اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

اثر شوک‌های قیمت نفت و رفتارهای هیجانی سرمایه‌گذاران بر ﺑﺎزده ﺳﻬﺎم شرکت‌های فعال در صنعت نفت ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
سید محمد جوادی
ﮔﺮوه علوم مالی نوین در صنعت ﻧﻔﺖ، داﻧﺸﻜﺪه ﻧﻔﺖ ﺗﻬﺮان، داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺻﻨﻌﺖ نفت، تهران، ایران
10.22034/efp.2026.733983
چکیده
پژوهش‌های اﺧﻴﺮ ﻧﺸﺎن داده اﺳﺖ رفتارهای اﺣﺴﺎﺳﻲ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬاران ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﻬﻤﻲ در ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ و ﺗﺒﻴﻴﻦ ﺑﺎزده ﺑﻪویژه ﺑﺮاى ﺳﻬﺎمﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ از ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ ذﻫﻨﻲ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮى ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار و ﻣﺤﺪودﻳﺖ زﻳﺎدى در آرﺑﻴﺘﺮاژ دارﻧﺪ ﺑﺎزى می‌کند. ﻫﺪف از اﻧﺠﺎم اﻳﻦ پژوهش ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ راﺑﻄﻪ و ﻣﻴﺰان اﺛﺮﮔﺬارى ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ و رفتارهای هیجانی ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬاران ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎزده ﺳﻬﺎم در ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎى ﭘﺘﺮوﺷﻴﻤﻲ و ﭘﺎﻻﻳﺸﻲ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاى رﺳﻴﺪن ﺑﻪ ﻫﺪف تحقیق و به‌منظور ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ آﻣﺎرى دادهﻫﺎ از ﻣﺪل ﺧﻮد رﮔﺮﺳﻴﻮنﺑﺮدارى ﺑﺎ وﻗﻔﻪ ﺗﻮزﻳﻌﻲ (ARDL) اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ آﻣﺎرى پژوهش شامل ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎى ﭘﺘﺮوﺷﻴﻤﻲ و ﭘﺎﻻﻳﺸﻲ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان اﺳﺖ. ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﻲ در ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﻲ 1403-١٣٨9، ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻓﻴﻠﺘﺮﻫﺎى ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﺪه، تعداد پانزده ﺷﺮﻛﺖ از ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ آﻣﺎرى ﻣﺬﻛﻮر اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ اﻧﺠﺎم اﻳﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﻲدﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ و رفتارهای هیجانی ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬاران ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎزده ﺳﻬﺎم در ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎى ﭘﺘﺮوﺷﻴﻤﻲ و ﭘﺎﻻﻳﺸﻲ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﻌﻨﻲدار دارد.

چکیده تصویری

اثر شوک‌های قیمت نفت و رفتارهای هیجانی سرمایه‌گذاران بر ﺑﺎزده ﺳﻬﺎم شرکت‌های فعال در صنعت نفت ایران
کلیدواژه‌ها
ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ
رفتارهای هیجانی ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺬاران
ﺑﺎزده ﺳﻬﺎم
ARDL
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

The Effect of Oil Price Shocks and Investors' Emotional Behavior on the Stock Returns of Companies Active in the Iranian Petroleum Industry

نویسنده English

Seyed Mohammad Javadi
Department of Accounting and Finance, Tehran Faculty of Petroleum, Petroleum University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

Recent research has shown that investors' emotional behaviors play an important role in determining prices and explaining returns, especially for stocks that have higher subjective valuations and greater limitations in arbitrage. The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship and degree of effectiveness of oil price changes and investors' emotional behaviors with stock returns in petrochemical and refining companies. To achieve the research objective and to statistically analyze the data, the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model was used. The statistical population of the research includes petrochemical and refining companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The selected sample in the period 2011-2024, considering the specified filters, is fifteen companies from the mentioned statistical population. The results of this study show that oil price changes and investors' emotional behaviors have a significant relationship with stock returns in petrochemical and refining companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The innovation of the research is in simultaneously examining the effects of three new variables in Iran's petrochemical and refining industry.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Oil Price Changes
Investors' Emotional Behavior
Stock Returns
ARDL
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