نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
This paper investigates the design and macroeconomic consequences of optimal monetary policy in the context of a high-inflation, emerging market economy. Using Iran as a case study, we estimate a structural macroeconomic model incorporating aggregate demand, supply, and money demand functions. The Central Bank’s objective function is optimized using dynamic programming techniques and calibrated to historical data from 1993 to 2023. We then evaluate the long-run relationship between optimal monetary expansion and the balance of payments using the ARDL bounds testing approach. Our findings suggest that optimal money supply paths, if adhered to, contribute significantly to improvements in both the current and capital accounts through increased investment, production, and financial market performance.
However, deviations from the optimal path particularly excessive money growth generate inflationary pressures without meaningful impact on external accounts. Policy implications include the need for rule-based monetary frameworks in inflation-prone economies to stabilize external accounts and preserve macroeconomic stability.
کلیدواژهها English
