اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

تعیین حجم بهینه پول و ارزیابی اثر آن بر تراز پرداخت‌های خارجی ایران: رویکرد برنامه‌ریزی پویا و مدل ARDL

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد بین‌الملل، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران. (نویسنده مسئول)
2 گروه اقتصاد بین الملل، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران
چکیده
اقتصاد کشور ایران بسیار بر درآمدهای نفتی متکی است، که این نیز وابستگی کامل به اجرای موفق پروژه‌های صنعت نفت، خصوصاً ابرپروژه‌های بالادستی دارد. در واقع، موفقیت ابرپروژه‌های نفت و گاز، به حفظ و افزایش ظرفیت‌های تولید و خدمات در این صنعت، و متعاقب آن باعث ارتقای درآمدهای دولت می‌شود. بدین سبب، مدیریت تهدیدات پروژه‌ای بسیار مهم می‌باشد. یکی از شاخه‌های بسیار مؤثر، تهدیدات مالی و پولی هستند که شریان منابع ورودی به ابرپروژه‌های نفتی را دچار اختلال شدید می‌سازند. در این مقاله، پس از شناسایی تهدیدات فوق‌الذکر، معیارهای مؤثر بر قضاوت در خصوص این تهدیدات نیز شناسایی شده، سپس با رتبه‌بندی و تعیین وزن اهمیتی معیارها، تهدیدات مذکور اولویت‌بندی می‌شود. تمامی این مراحل با کسب نظرات خبرگان امر، و تکنیک‌های تصمیم‌گیری گروهی محقق می‌گردد. نتایج حاکی از آن است که چالش‌های عمده عبارتند از عدم کفایت اعتبارات موردنیاز ابرپروژه‌ها، عدم کفایت برگشت مالی ابرپروژه‌ها، و تورم

چکیده تصویری

تعیین حجم بهینه پول و ارزیابی اثر آن بر تراز پرداخت‌های خارجی ایران: رویکرد برنامه‌ریزی پویا و مدل ARDL
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Optimal Money Supply and Its Impact on Iran’s Balance of Payments: A Dynamic Programming and ARDL Approach

نویسندگان English

Nurollah Salehi Asfiji 1
Mostafa Gorgini 2
Seyyed Abdolmajid Jalaee 2
1 Department of International Economics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran.
2 Department of International Economics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran.
چکیده English

This paper investigates the design and macroeconomic consequences of optimal monetary policy in the context of a high-inflation, emerging market economy. Using Iran as a case study, we estimate a structural macroeconomic model incorporating aggregate IS curve, a Phillips curve, and a money growth equation functions. The Central Bank’s objective function is optimized using dynamic programming techniques and calibrated to historical data from 1993 to 2023. We then evaluate the long-run relationship between optimal monetary expansion and the balance of payments using the ARDL bounds testing approach. Our findings suggest that optimal money supply paths, if adhered to, contribute significantly to improvements in both the current and capital accounts through increased investment, production, and financial market performance. However, deviations from the optimal path particularly excessive money growth generate inflationary pressures without meaningful impact on external accounts. Policy implications include the need for rule-based monetary frameworks in inflation-prone economies to stabilize external accounts and preserve macroeconomic stability

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Central Bank Loss Function
Optimal Monetary Rule
Optimal Control
Balance of Payments
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