نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Over the past two decades, the global energy market has undergone structural transformations and increased international interactions, rendering traditional supply and demand analyses insufficient to fully explain the global oil and gas trade network. This study aims to analyze Iran’s position within the global energy network and examine the dynamics of price and trade spillovers among regional clusters. Data from 2000 to 2024 were analyzed using a combined approach of network analysis and the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP–VAR) model to identify inter-country interactions, centrality indices, and channels of trade and price spillovers. The results indicate that Iran, with high degree and betweenness centrality, functions as a key intermediary in the global energy network, with significant spillover effects particularly on Asian countries such as China, India, and Turkey. The global energy network has evolved into a decentralized and flexible structure, with the Middle East as the largest source of supply and price spillovers, Asia as the primary recipient, and Europe and the United States playing intermediary roles. Shock simulations further reveal that price shocks are asymmetrically distributed: energy-exporting countries benefit, whereas Asian importers bear greater economic pressures. These findings highlight that Iran’s strategic significance extends beyond export volume, emphasizing its intermediary role and connectivity through transit routes. Network analysis combined with the TVP–VAR model provides an effective framework for understanding market dynamics, anticipating geopolitical impacts, and guiding strategic energy policies.
کلیدواژهها English