اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

تحلیل جایگاه ایران در شبکه جهانی انرژی و پویایی سرریزهای بین‌منطقه‌ای: رویکرد ترکیبی تحلیل شبکه و مدل TVP–VAR

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
2 گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
بازار جهانی انرژی طی دو دهه اخیر با تحولات ساختاری و افزایش تعاملات بین‌المللی مواجه شده است، به طوری که تحلیل‌های سنتی عرضه و تقاضا قادر به توضیح کامل شبکه تجارت نفت و گاز نیستند. این پژوهش با هدف تحلیل جایگاه ایران در شبکه جهانی انرژی و بررسی پویایی سرریزهای قیمتی و تجاری بین خوشه‌های منطقه‌ای انجام شد. داده‌های سال‌های ۲۰۰۰ تا ۲۰۲۴ با ترکیب روش تحلیل شبکه‌ای و مدل اقتصادسنجی پویا TVP–VAR مورد بررسی قرار گرفت تا تعاملات میان کشورها، شاخص‌های مرکزیت و مسیرهای سرریز تجاری و قیمتی شناسایی شوند. نتایج نشان داد ایران با درجه گره و مرکزیت بینجی بالا، نقش میانجی کلیدی در شبکه جهانی انرژی دارد و اثرات سرریز آن به ویژه بر کشورهای آسیایی مانند چین، هند و ترکیه قابل توجه است. شبکه جهانی انرژی به صورت چندمرکزی و انعطاف‌پذیر شکل گرفته است؛ خاورمیانه بزرگ‌ترین منبع سرریزهای عرضه و قیمت، آسیا بزرگ‌ترین دریافت‌کننده و اروپا و آمریکا نقش میانجی دارند. شبیه‌سازی شوک‌های قیمتی نیز نشان داد اثرات این شوک‌ها به صورت نامتقارن توزیع می‌شوند و صادرکنندگان انرژی از آن بهره می‌برند، در حالی که واردکنندگان آسیایی فشار اقتصادی بیشتری متحمل می‌شوند. این یافته‌ها تأکید می‌کند جایگاه استراتژیک ایران فراتر از حجم صادرات بوده و نقش میانجی و اتصال مسیرهای ترانزیتی، ظرفیت اثرگذاری آن را تقویت می‌کند و تحلیل شبکه‌ای همراه با مدلTVP–VAR ابزار مؤثری برای درک پویایی بازار، پیش‌بینی اثرات ژئوپولیتیکی و هدایت سیاست‌های راهبردی انرژی فراهم می‌آورد.

چکیده تصویری

تحلیل جایگاه ایران در شبکه جهانی انرژی و پویایی سرریزهای بین‌منطقه‌ای: رویکرد ترکیبی تحلیل شبکه و مدل TVP–VAR
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

The Strategic Role of Iran in the Global Energy Network and the Dynamics of Interregional Spillovers: An Integrated Network Analysis and TVP–VAR Approach

نویسندگان English

Reza Moghaddam Rad 1
Marjan Daman Keshideh 1
Amirreza Keyghobadi 2
1 Department of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Industrial Management, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

Over the past two decades, the global energy market has undergone structural transformations and increased international interactions, rendering traditional supply and demand analyses insufficient to fully explain the global oil and gas trade network. This study aims to analyze Iran’s position within the global energy network and examine the dynamics of price and trade spillovers among regional clusters. Data from 2000 to 2024 were analyzed using a combined approach of network analysis and the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP–VAR) model to identify inter-country interactions, centrality indices, and channels of trade and price spillovers. The results indicate that Iran, with high degree and betweenness centrality, functions as a key intermediary in the global energy network, with significant spillover effects particularly on Asian countries such as China, India, and Turkey. The global energy network has evolved into a decentralized and flexible structure, with the Middle East as the largest source of supply and price spillovers, Asia as the primary recipient, and Europe and the United States playing intermediary roles. Shock simulations further reveal that price shocks are asymmetrically distributed: energy-exporting countries benefit, whereas Asian importers bear greater economic pressures. These findings highlight that Iran’s strategic significance extends beyond export volume, emphasizing its intermediary role and connectivity through transit routes. Network analysis combined with the TVP–VAR model provides an effective framework for understanding market dynamics, anticipating geopolitical impacts, and guiding strategic energy policies.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Global Energy Network
Iran
Network Analysis
Trade Spillovers
Price Shocks
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