اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

بررسی تاثیر رانت انواع منابع طبیعی بر بدهی دولت و رفتار چرخه‌ای آن در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.
چکیده
در کشورهای در حال توسعه، به‌ویژه اقتصادهای وابسته به منابع طبیعی مانند ایران، است. این مطالعه با هدف بررسی اثر رانت منابع طبیعی (به تفکیک رانت نفت، گاز طبیعی، زغال‌سنگ، مواد معدنی و جنگل) بر سطح بدهی عمومی دولت ایران و رفتار چرخه‌ای آن در دوره 1402- 1360 انجام شده است. با استفاده از روش اقتصادسنجی خودتوضیحی با وقفه‌های گسترده و لحاظ اثر تعاملی انواع رانت و سیکل‌های تجاری، شش مدل جداگانه برآورد گردید. نتایج حاکی از آن است که رانت نفت به طور مستقیم و معنادار بدهی عمومی را در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت کاهش می‌دهد، در حالی که رانت کل منابع طبیعی عمدتاً از طریق کانال تعاملی، رفتار چرخه‌ای بدهی را به طور قابل‌توجهی تضعیف کرده و پتانسیل ایجاد الگوی ضدچرخه‌ای را فراهم می‌آورد. رانت‌های فسیلی عمده (نفت و زغال‌سنگ) و رانت جنگل نقش تعدیل‌کننده مثبت و تثبیت‌کننده‌ای ایفا می‌کنند، حال آنکه رانت مواد معدنی رفتار چرخه‌ای بدهی را تشدید می‌نماید. متغیرهای کنترلی نیز نشان دادند که تورم از طریق مکانیسم فرسایش بدهی عمل کرده و نرخ ارز و باز بودن تجاری عموماً فشار بر بدهی را افزایش می‌دهند. سرعت تعدیل به تعادل بلندمدت در مدل‌های مبتنی بر رانت‌های غیرفسیلی به مراتب بالاتر است. این یافته‌ها با فرضیه «نفرین منابع» همخوانی داشته و بر ناهمگنی اثرات انواع رانت تأکید می‌کنند. بر این اساس، تمرکز سیاست‌گذاری بر تنوع‌بخشی اقتصادی، تقویت صندوق‌های تثبیت و ارتقای کیفیت نهادها می‌تواند به بهبود پایداری مالی منجر شود.

چکیده تصویری

بررسی تاثیر رانت انواع منابع طبیعی بر بدهی دولت و رفتار چرخه‌ای آن در ایران
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Investigating the Effect of Natural Resource Rent on Government Debt and its Cycality in Iran

نویسندگان English

Maghsoud Pashazadeh
Sakineh Sojoodi
Mohammad Mahdi Barghi Oskooee
Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
چکیده English

This study examines the impact of disaggregated natural resource rents on Iran’s public debt and its cyclical behavior over the period 1981–2023. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach, six separate models are estimated, incorporating interaction terms between different types of rents (oil, natural gas, coal, minerals, and forests) and the business cycle. The findings reveal that oil rents directly and significantly reduce public debt in both the short and long run. In contrast, total natural resource rents primarily operate through the interaction channel, substantially weakening the procyclical behavior of debt and even creating potential for countercyclical patterns. Major fossil fuel rents along with forest rents play a positive, stabilizing moderating role, dampening debt’s sensitivity to economic fluctuations. However, mineral rents exacerbate procyclicality, making debt more vulnerable to business cycles. Among control variables, inflation reduces debt through a debt-eroding mechanism, while exchange rate depreciation and trade openness exert upward pressure on debt levels. Notably, the speed of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium is considerably faster in models based on non-fossil resource rents. Overall, the results confirm the “resource curse” hypothesis with heterogeneous effects across rent types. The study highlights that policies focused on economic diversification, strengthening stabilization funds, and improving institutional quality are essential to enhance fiscal sustainability in resource-rich economies like Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Public Debt
Natural Resource Rents
Procyclical Behavior
ARDL Method
Fiscal Policy
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