اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

بررسی تأثیر شاخص‌های اقتصاد دیجیتال بر تقاضای پول ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران
10.22034/efp.2026.2092225.1063
چکیده
فرآیند دیجیتالی‌شدن و گسترش فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات، مبانی سنتی توابع تقاضای پول را تغییر داده است. با گسترش روزافزون ابزارهای پرداخت الکترونیک و کاهش هزینه‌های مبادلات، درک چگونگی تأثیر این تحولات بر ساختار پولی به ضرورتی اجتناب­‌ناپذیر برای سیاست‌­گذاران تبدیل شده است. این مطالعه با استفاده از داده‌های سالانه اقتصاد ایران در دوره زمانی ۱۳۷۳ تا ۱۴۰۳، به بررسی پویایی‌های کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت با استفاده از مدل خودتوضیح (ARDL) می‌پردازد. نتایج آزمون کرانه‌ها، وجود یک رابطه هم‌انباشتگی پایدار و بلندمدت بین نقدینگی و متغیرهای توضیحی را تأیید می‌کند. یافته‌های بلندمدت نشان می­‌دهد که تولید ناخالص داخلی، سپرده‌های بانکی و شاخص (HDI) اثر مثبت و معناداری بر تقاضای پول دارند. در مقابل، شاخص اقتصاد دیجیتال و نرخ ارز تأثیر منفی و معناداری بر جای می‌گذارند. و متغیرهای تورم و بازده بازار سرمایه در افق بلندمدت تأثیر معناداری بر تابع تقاضای پول ندارند. ضریب مکانیزم تصحیح خطا، معادل ۲۰.۴- مؤید فرآیند تعدیل قوی به سمت تعادل بلندمدت است و عدم‌تعادل‌های کوتاه‌مدت را به‌طور مؤثری اصلاح می‌کند. ثبات ساختاری مدل از طریق آزمون‌های CUSUM و CUSUMQ تأیید شد و پایایی نتایج نیز با استفاده از تخمین‌زننده‌های DOLS و FMOLS مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. این یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که توسعه اقتصاد دیجیتال نه تنها موجب بی‌ثباتی پولی نشده، بلکه زمینه‌ساز یک تحول ساختاری کارآمد در تابع تقاضای پول شده است. در نتیجه، سیاست‌گذاران پولی باید ضمن بازنگری در ابزارهای مدیریت نقدینگی و همسوسازی آن‌ها با ابزارهای پرداخت الکترونیک، تقویت زیرساخت‌های دیجیتال را با هدف ارتقای شفافیت و کارایی شبکه بانکی در اولویت قرار دهند.

چکیده تصویری

بررسی تأثیر شاخص‌های اقتصاد دیجیتال بر تقاضای پول ایران
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Investigating the Impact of Digital Economy Indicators on Money Demand in Iran

نویسندگان English

Bahar Hajializadeh
Hossein Akbarifard
Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaee Esfandabadi
Alireza Hasanzadeh Jozdani
Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
چکیده English

The digitalization process and the expansion of information and communication technologies (ICT) have fundamentally altered the traditional foundations of money demand functions. As electronic payment instruments proliferate and transaction costs decrease, understanding their impact on the monetary structure becomes an unavoidable necessity for policymakers. This study examines the Iranian economy using annual data from 1994 to 2024, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze short- and long-term dynamics. The bounds test results confirm a stable, long-term cointegration relationship between liquidity and the explanatory variables. Long-run findings reveal that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), bank deposits, and the Human Development Index (HDI) exert significant positive effects on money demand. Conversely, the digital economy index and exchange rates have a significant negative impact. Notably, inflation and capital market returns do not significantly affect the money demand function in the long-term horizon. The Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) coefficient of -20.4 confirms a robust adjustment process toward long-term equilibrium, correcting short-term disequilibria effectively. Structural stability was verified via CUSUM and CUSUMQ tests, while the robustness of the results was confirmed using DOLS and FMOLS estimators. These findings suggest that digital economy development has not induced monetary instability but has instead facilitated an efficient structural transformation in money demand. Consequently, monetary policymakers should revise liquidity management tools to align with electronic payment instruments and prioritize strengthening digital infrastructure to enhance the transparency and efficiency of the banking network.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Money Demand
Digital Economy
ARDL Model
Monetary Policy
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