اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

طراحی مدل سیاست‌گذاری مالی بنگاه‌محور برای تاب‌آوری و رشد پایدار کسب‌وکارهای ایرانی در شرایط بی‌ثباتی اقتصادی: مطالعه‌ای مبتنی بر نظریه داده‌بنیاد

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
محمد امین زارعی
گروه پژوهش، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.
10.22034/efp.2026.2091945.1061
چکیده
هدف پژوهش حاضر طراحی مدل سیاست‌گذاری مالی بنگاه‌محور برای تقویت تاب‌آوری و رشد پایدار کسب‌وکارهای ایرانی در شرایط بی‌ثباتی اقتصادی بود. این پژوهش با رویکرد کیفی و راهبرد نظریه داده‌بنیاد انجام شد. داده‌ها از طریق مصاحبه نیمه‌ساختاریافته با ۲۴نفر از مدیران بنگاه‌ها، مدیران مالی، کارشناسان بانکی و بازار سرمایه، سیاست‌گذاران مالی و استادان حوزه اقتصاد مالی و مدیریت بازرگانی گردآوری و با روش کدگذاری باز، محوری و انتخابی تحلیل شد. یافته‌ها نشان دادند که مسئله اصلی بنگاه‌ها صرفاً کمبود منابع مالی نیست، بلکه گسست میان منطق سیاست‌گذاری مالی، واقعیت عملیاتی بنگاه، رفتار نظام مالی و ظرفیت مدیریتی شرکت‌هاست.
مقوله‌محوری پژوهش با عنوان «هم‌راستاسازی سیاست مالی، ظرفیت بنگاه و سازوکارهای تأمین مالی برای تاب‌آوری رشدآفرین» صورت‌بندی شد. شرایط علی مدل شامل تورم، نوسان ارزی، محدودیت اعتباری، نااطمینانی مقرراتی و فشار سرمایه در گردش بود. شرایط زمینه‌ای شامل اندازه بنگاه، مرحله چرخه عمر، ساختار مالکیت، کیفیت گزارشگری مالی و وابستگی ارزی و شرایط مداخله‌گر شامل اعتماد نهادی، ثبات مقررات، هماهنگی میان نهادهای مالی و کیفیت داده‌های اعتباری بود. راهبردهای اصلی شامل طراحی بسته‌های مالی تمایزیافته، تثبیت سرمایه در گردش، تأمین مالی زنجیره‌ای، پوشش ریسک و مشوق‌های مالیاتی مشروط بود. پیامدهای مدل در سه سطح بنگاه، نظام مالی و سیاست‌گذاری قابل تبیین است. نتایج پژوهش بر ضرورت گذار از حمایت مالی عمومی به سیاست‌گذاری مالی دقیق، داده‌محور و بنگاه‌محور تأکید دارد.

چکیده تصویری

طراحی مدل سیاست‌گذاری مالی بنگاه‌محور برای تاب‌آوری و رشد پایدار کسب‌وکارهای ایرانی در شرایط بی‌ثباتی اقتصادی: مطالعه‌ای مبتنی بر نظریه داده‌بنیاد
کلیدواژه‌ها
سیاست‌گذاری مالی
تاب‌آوری بنگاه
رشد پایدار
تأمین مالی بنگاه
بی‌ثباتی اقتصادی
نظریه داده‌بنیاد
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Designing a Firm-Centered Financial Policy Model for the Resilience and Sustainable Growth of Iranian Businesses under Economic Instability: A Grounded Theory Study

نویسنده English

Mohammad Amin Zarei
Department of Research, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

This study developed a firm-centered financial policy model to strengthen the resilience and sustainable growth of Iranian businesses amid economic instability. A systematic grounded theory design was used, and data were collected through 24 semi-structured interviews with business managers, financial managers, banking and credit experts, capital market specialists, fiscal policy experts, and academic scholars. Open, axial, and selective coding were combined with constant comparison, analytical memoing, and an auditable data-to-category chain. The findings identified a central policy-to-firm translation gap rather than a simple shortage of finance. The core category was “aligning financial policy, firm capacity, and financing mechanisms for resilience-oriented growth.” The Iranian institutional context was incorporated through sanctions, multiple exchange-rate arrangements, administered interest rates, mandated lending, banking-system imbalances, regulatory uncertainty, and working-capital pressure. Contextual and intervening conditions included firm heterogeneity, financial-reporting quality, foreign-exchange exposure, institutional trust, inter-agency coordination, regulatory stability, and credit-data infrastructure. Strategies comprised differentiated financial packages, working-capital stabilization, supply-chain and contract-based finance, risk-coverage mechanisms, conditional tax and credit incentives, and feedback-based policy learning. The model differs from targeted credit, SME finance, and relationship banking because it integrates firm diagnosis, instrument matching, capability development, conditional reciprocity, and outcome monitoring. Its main theoretical contribution is to conceptualize firm data-readiness as a policy condition and resilience as a return to productive investment and sustainable growth rather than short-term survival alone.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Financial Policy
Firm Resilience
Sustainable Growth
Corporate Finance
Economic Instability
Grounded Theory
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