اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

رقابت ارزی میان دلار و پوند: تحلیل راهبردی و دلالت‌های سیاستی با رویکرد نظریه بازی‌ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی،گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان، شهرسمنان، ایران
2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد،دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، شهر اصفهان، ایران
10.22034/efp.2026.2087824.1039
چکیده
تجربه نوسانات ارزی در سطح بین الملل و تأثیر سیاست‌های اقتصادی بر این بازارها، ضرورت رصد رفتار کنش‌گران بازار را برای تحقق اهداف اقتصادی دوچندان کرده است. در این میان، تعاملات ارزی میان دلار آمریکا و پوند بریتانیا به دلیل سلطه تاریخی این دو ارز در نظام ارزی جهانی و نقش کلیدی فدرال رزرو و بانک مرکزی بریتانیا، جایگاهی ویژه یافته است. این پژوهش با هدف تحلیل راهبردی این رقابت ارزی، به مدل‌سازی رفتار دلار و پوند بر پایه نظریه بازی‌ها پرداخته و از سه رویکرد تعادل نش، اشتاکلبرگ(رهبرـ پیرو) و کورنو بهره گرفته است. داده‌های نرخ ارز در بازه زمانی ۲۰۰۰ تا ۲۰24 بررسی شدند تا پویایی رقابت و فرصت‌های بهبود جایگاه ارز پیرو تحلیل گردد. نتایج حاکی از آن است که در چهارچوب نظریه بازی ها، تعادل نش در بازی بین دلار و پوند در تجارت جهانی وجود دارد. همچنین، با سیاست‌هایی چون تقویت همکاری منطقه‌ای، تثبیت چارچوب‌های پولی و کاهش وابستگی به ارز غالب در تجارت جهانی می‌توان نقش ارز پیرو را ارتقا داد و از این تحلیل در مدیریت ذخایر ارزی بهره مند شد.

چکیده تصویری

رقابت ارزی میان دلار و پوند: تحلیل راهبردی و دلالت‌های سیاستی با رویکرد نظریه بازی‌ها
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Currency Competition between the U.S. Dollar and the British Pound: A Strategic Analysis and Policy Implications through a Game Theory Approach

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Jafari 1
ahmad Googerdchian 2
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Iran
2 Associate Professor Department of Economics ,Department of Administrative Sciences and Economics,Isfahan University, Isfahan,Iran.
چکیده English

The experience of exchange rate fluctuations on an international scale and the impact of economic policies on these markets have made it increasingly necessary to monitor the behavior of market players in order to achieve economic objectives. Among these, the currency interactions between the US dollar and the British pound have gained particular importance due to the historical dominance of these two currencies in the global monetary system and the key roles played by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. This research aims to analyze the strategic competition between these two currencies by modeling the behavior of the dollar and the pound based on game theory, utilizing three approaches: Nash equilibrium, Stackelberg (leader-follower), and Cournot. Exchange rate data from 2000 to 2024 were analyzed to explore the dynamics of this competition and the opportunities for improving the position of the follower currency. The results indicate that, within the framework of game theory, a Nash equilibrium exists in the interaction between the dollar and the pound in global trade. Furthermore, policies such as strengthening regional cooperation, stabilizing monetary frameworks, and reducing dependency on the dominant currency in global trade can enhance the role of the follower currency, and this analysis can be utilized in the management of foreign exchange reserves.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

International Financial Markets
International Monetary System
Game Theory
Nash Equilibrium
Stackelberg and Cournot Models
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