نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
The Iranian economy is facing a structural contradiction rooted in its historical dependence on hydrocarbon resources while simultaneously confronting the "dilemma of capital allocation efficiency." This challenge takes on vital dimensions in the capital-intensive and strategic petrochemical-refining industry, which acts as the main bottleneck for value creation and the realization of "Resistance Economy" objectives. The primary goal of this research is to move beyond mere descriptive analyses and to design an integrated and operational model for the smart guidance of investment in this industry. This research utilizes a three-stage qualitative methodology based on the theoretical framework of "Policy Transfer." In the first stage, a "Policy Toolkit" of successful global policy levers was extracted through a comparative study (benchmarking) of the experiences of nine selected countries across three analytical groups (Resource-Based, Development-Oriented, Market-Based) and using the Thematic Analysis method. In the second stage, by analyzing the Iranian context and through interviews with elites, four "Indigenous Adaptation Filters" (Sovereign Credibility, Resource Security, Geopolitical Resilience, and Sustainable Competitiveness) were formulated and validated using the Delphi method. In the final stage, by employing an "Expert Weighted Scoring Model," the global tools were passed through the indigenous filters, and the most efficient ones were selected for the formulation of the model. Expert assessment indicated that the current investment models in Iran lack the necessary efficiency due to their inability to cover fundamental risks (especially in the areas of governance and feedstock security). In contrast, the desired model extracted from this research is a comprehensive, integrated, five-pillar framework that is based on: 1) Feedstock Security Regime based on long-term contracts, 2) Integrated Governance Structure with the establishment of an Independent Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), 3) Endogenous Financing Framework relying on the Capital Market and the National Development Fund, 4) Cluster Development in the form of industrial parks, and 5) Indigenous Technology Development Strategy. The findings suggest that the key to success in attracting and guiding capital is to move from a short-term "Incentive" model (based on discounts and exemptions) toward an "Enabling Model based on the Root-Cause Removal of Risk." The proposed model, by focusing on establishing contractual stability, managerial integration, and financial transparency, provides an environment where investment is not a high-risk gamble, but a predictable and profitable economic activity.
کلیدواژهها English
