اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

ارزیابی اقتصادی عضویت ایران در FATF تحت تحریم ها؛ تحلیل کیفی مبتنی بر داده‌های هوش مصنوعی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
گروه اقتصاد و بانکداری اسلامی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
10.22034/efp.2026.2089687.1053
چکیده
عضویت در FATF برای ایرانِ تحت تحریم‌ های گسترده، به چالشی پیچیده در ابعاد سیاسی، امنیتی و اقتصادی تبدیل شده است. مسئله اصلی بر تعارض استاندارد های بین ‌المللی با قوانین داخلی و تأثیر تحریم‌ های یکجانبه آمریکا بر انزوای مالی و افزایش هزینه ‌های مبادلاتی تمرکز دارد. این تحقیق با روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و مدل هزینه-فایده، به ارزیابی عضویت ایران در FATF با فرض تداوم تحریم‌ ها می‌پردازد. فرضیه تحقیق بر این است که عضویت، حتی با وجود تحریم‌ ها، می‌تواند رشد GDP سالانه را افزایش دهد. داده‌ ها از پاسخ ‌های ۱۳ چت‌ بات هوش مصنوعی استخراج و با روش تحلیل تماتیک (کدگذاری باز، محوری و انتخابی) پردازش شد. یافته ‌ها نشان داد تراز هزینه-فایده اقتصادی عضویت، نامتوازن اما مثبتِ محدود است؛ فواید شامل کاهش ۱۵-۳۰ درصدی هزینه تراکنش ‌ها، افزایش ۱۵-۲۰ درصدی تجارت غیرنفتی و رشد ۰.۵-۲ درصدی GDP برآورد شد. در مقابل، هزینه ‌ها عمدتاً شامل مخاطرات امنیتی (افشای کانال ‌های مالی) و مخارج اجرایی (۲۰۰-۵۰۰ میلیون دلار) است. در نهایت، فرضیه به‌صورت مشروط تأیید و سناریوی واقع‌ بینانه (رشد ۰.۵-۲ درصدی GDP با اجرای تدریجی) محتمل‌ترین حالت تشخیص داده شد. همچنین نظریه «معامله پرریسک انطباق» برای تبیین تعارض میان تاب‌آوری استراتژیک و گشایش اقتصادی استخراج گردید.

چکیده تصویری

ارزیابی اقتصادی عضویت ایران در FATF تحت تحریم ها؛ تحلیل کیفی مبتنی بر داده‌های هوش مصنوعی
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Economic Assessment of Iran’s Membership in FATF under Sanctions: A Qualitative Analysis Based on Artificial Intelligence Data

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Nasr Esfahani
Rohollah Ebadi
Fatemeh Izadi
Department of Economics and Islamic Banking, Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Membership in the FATF has become a complex political, security, and economic challenge for Iran under extensive sanctions. The core issue focuses on the conflict between international standards and domestic laws, alongside the impact of unilateral U.S. sanctions on financial isolation and increased transaction costs. Utilizing a descriptive-analytical approach and a cost-benefit model, this research evaluates Iran's FATF membership assuming the persistence of sanctions. The hypothesis posits that membership, even amid sanctions, can increase annual GDP growth. Data were extracted from the responses of 13 AI chatbots and processed using thematic analysis (open, axial, and selective coding). Findings indicated that the economic cost-benefit balance of membership is unbalanced but limitedly positive; benefits included a 15-30% reduction in transaction costs, a 15-20% increase in non-oil trade, and 0.5-2% GDP growth. Conversely, costs primarily involve security risks (disclosure of financial channels) and implementation expenses ($200-500 million). Ultimately, the hypothesis was conditionally confirmed, and the realistic scenario (0.5-2% GDP growth with gradual implementation) was identified as the most probable outcome. Furthermore, the theory of "High-Risk Compliance Trade-off" was extracted to explain the conflict between strategic resilience and economic opening.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Cost-Benefit Analysis
Economic Sanctions
Financial Action Task Force (FATF)
GDP Growth
Resistance Economy
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