اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

اقتصاد و سیاست گذاری مالی

ماتریس سیاستی برای کاهش انتقال شوک‌های قیمت نفت به بازارهای کشاورزی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد ،دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری، واحد تهران مرکزی‌، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی‌، تهران، ایران.
2 گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد تهران مرکزی‌، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی‌، تهران، ایران.
3 گروه اقتصاد، واحد مرودشت‌، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی‌، شیراز، ایران.
10.22034/efp.2026.2082979.1013
چکیده
این پژوهش با هدف طراحی چارچوبی نظام‌مند برای کاهش آسیب‌پذیری بخش کشاورزی در برابر شوک‌های قیمت نفت انجام شده است. با استفاده از روش تلفیقی و مرور نظام‌مند ادبیات، یک ماتریس سیاستی جامع توسعه یافته است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهند شوک‌های نفتی عمدتاً از طریق کانال‌های هزینه نهاده‌ها و تقاضای سوخت‌های زیستی به بخش کشاورزی منتقل می‌شوند.برای کاهش این اثرات، ماتریس پیشنهادی ده ابزار سیاستی را در سه بازه زمانی دسته‌بندی می‌کند در کوتاه‌مدت، انتقال‌های نقدی هدفمند و مدیریت ذخایر استراتژیک و در میان‌مدت، اصلاح تدریجی یارانه سوخت با اقدامات جبرانی و ایجاد صندوق‌های تثبیت قیمت و در بلندمدت، سرمایه‌گذاری در بهره‌وری انرژی و توسعه انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر. نتیجه اساسی پژوهش تأکید می‌کند موفقیت در این مسیر مستلزم رویکردی ترکیبی، مرحله‌ای، با توالی صحیح اجرا و هماهنگی نهادی مستحکم و قوی است. این ماتریس می‌تواند به عنوان نقشه راه عملیاتی برای سیاست‌گذاران در کشورهای در حال توسعه مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

چکیده تصویری

ماتریس سیاستی برای کاهش انتقال شوک‌های قیمت نفت به بازارهای کشاورزی
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Policy Matrix for Mitigating the Transmission of Oil Price Shocks to Agricultural Markets

نویسندگان English

Mahmoud Farahani Nik 1
Marjan Damankeshideh 1
Amirreza Keyghobadi 2
Seyed Nematollah Mousavi 3
1 Department of Economics, Ct.C, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Industrial Management, Ct.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Department of Economics, Marv.C., Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran.
چکیده English

This research aims to develop a systematic framework to reduce the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to oil price shocks. Using an integrated approach and a systematic literature review, a comprehensive policy matrix has been constructed. The findings indicate that oil shocks are primarily transmitted to agriculture through input cost channels and biofuel demand. To mitigate these effects, the proposed matrix categorizes ten policy instruments across three time horizons. In the short term, targeted cash transfers and strategic reserve management are emphasized. In the medium term, gradual reform of fuel subsidies with compensatory measures and the establishment of price stabilization funds are recommended. In the long term, investments in energy efficiency and the development of renewable energy sources are prioritized. The study highlights that success requires a combined, phased approach with proper sequencing and strong institutional coordination. This policy matrix can serve as an operational roadmap for policymakers, particularly in developing countries, providing guidance on how to reduce the transmission of oil price volatility to agricultural markets while promoting sustainable and resilient sectoral development.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Oil Price Shock
Agricultural Products
Food Policy
Food Security
Policy Matrix
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Bodenstein, M., Erceg, C. J., & Guerrieri, L. (2011). Oil shocks and external adjustment. Journal of International Economics, 83(2), 168–184
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Joint Research Centre (JRC). (2015). The use of renewable energy in agriculture: An assessment of the impact on the environment and on food security. European Commission.
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انتشار آنلاین از 30 شهریور 1405